Tracking the Structure and Sentiment of Vaccination Discussions on Mumsnet (preprint)

Vaccination is one of the most impactful healthcare interventions in terms of lives saved at a given cost, leading the anti-vaccination movement to be identified as one of the top 10 threats to global health in 2019 by the World Health Organization. This issue increased in importance during the COVID-19 pandemic where, despite good overall adherence to vaccination, specific communities still showed high rates of refusal. Online social media has been identified as a breeding ground for anti-vaccination discussions. In this work, we study how vaccination discussions are conducted in the discussion forum of Mumsnet, a United Kingdom based website aimed at parents. By representing vaccination discussions as networks of social interactions, we can apply techniques from network analysis to characterize these discussions, namely network comparison, a task aimed at quantifying similarities and differences between networks. Using network comparison based on graphlets -- small connected network subgraphs -- we show how the topological structure vaccination discussions on Mumsnet differs over time, in particular before and after COVID-19. We also perform sentiment analysis on the content of the discussions and show how the sentiment towards vaccinations changes over time. Our results highlight an association between differences in network structure and changes to sentiment, demonstrating how network comparison can be used as a tool to guide and enhance the conclusions from sentiment analysis.

Public perceptions and interactions with UK COVID-19 Test, Trace and Isolate policies, and implications for pandemic infectious disease modelling (preprint)

The efforts to contain SARS-CoV-2 and reduce the impact of COVID-19 have been supported by Test, Trace and Isolate (TTI) systems in many settings, including the United Kingdom. The mathematical models underlying policy decisions about TTI make assumptions about behaviour in the context of a rapidly unfolding and changeable emergency. This study investigates the reported behaviours of UK citizens in July 2021, assesses them against how a set of TTI processes are conceptualised and represented in models and then interprets the findings with modellers who have been contributing evidence to TTI policy. We report on testing practices, including the uses of and trust in different types of testing, and the challenges of testing and isolating faced by different demographic groups. The study demonstrates the potential of input from members of the public to benefit the modelling process, from guiding the choice of research questions, influencing choice of model structure, informing parameter ranges and validating or challenging assumptions, to highlighting where model assumptions are reasonable or where their poor reflection of practice might lead to uninformative results. We conclude that deeper engagement with members of the public should be integrated at regular stages of public health intervention modelling.